Winning the state's VaxMillions lottery on two separate days if every eligible adult resident is entered and a new drawing is held every second.īottom line? Janson, an affiliate in computer science, says that if he were a betting man, he would put his money on our being just fine.Throwing a dart at a dartboard with your eyes closed and hitting a bullseye.Any four random people sharing a birthday in the same month (the odds of this are 1 in 1,750 exactly).Flipping a coin and having the first 11 attempts all land heads.They compared Bennu's chances of hitting Earth to the approximate likelihood of: Janson and Morgane Austern, both assistant professors of statistics. This raises the question of just how good should we feel about our odds. (In an unrelated development, NASA plans to launch a mission in November to see whether a spacecraft could hit a sizeable space rock and change its trajectory just in case it ever needs to.) The collision likely wouldn’t happen until the next century or two either, meaning it would appear long after everyone currently on Earth is dead. The odds have changed from 1-in-2,700 to now 1-in-1,750. The space agency, which has been tracking the building-sized rock since it was discovered in 1999, revised its prediction based on new tracking data.Įven with the small shift in odds, it seems likely we won't face the kind of scenario featured that in the 1998 science-fiction disaster film "Armageddon" when Stamper, played by Bruce Willis, and his team had to try to blow up a huge asteroid that was on an extinction-making collision course with the Earth. As it turns out, there’s actually a greater chance than previously thought that the asteroid will collide with Earth.
New calculations put the odds at 1 in 1,750, a figure slightly higher than previously thought. Recently NASA updated its forecast of the chances that the asteroid Bennu, one of the two most hazardous known objects in our solar system, will hit Earth in the next 300 years.
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